Census 2025: India's Demographic Future and Impact on Lok Sabha Elections

Background on the Delayed Census

After years of delay, India’s decennial census is now set to begin in 2025. The Central Government has extended the tenure of Mritunjay Kumar Narayan, Registrar General and Census Commissioner of India, until August 2026 to oversee this crucial operation. Delayed initially due to the COVID-19 pandemic, this exercise aims to update India’s demographic data to guide policies and electoral decisions. With a new push towards inclusion, this census could lead to notable changes in the political landscape.

Census and Delimitation: Potential for Increasing Lok Sabha Seats

The upcoming census may lead to the much-anticipated delimitation of Lok Sabha constituencies, determining the distribution of seats based on population. The current restriction on increasing Lok Sabha seats, implemented in 2002, is set to end by 2026. Population growth over the last two decades suggests that the Lok Sabha seat count could exceed the current 543 if delimitation proceeds, which could reshape political representation, especially in states with varying population densities.

Demand for a Caste-Based Census

Several political voices, including the Congress party, are calling for a caste-based census along with the general census. Congress leader Jairam Ramesh highlighted the importance of including a comprehensive caste count to capture India’s diverse social structure. Such data is considered essential for fair policy distribution and socio-economic development. Traditionally, the census has included counts for Scheduled Castes (SC) and Scheduled Tribes (ST), but an all-encompassing caste census could provide detailed insights into the country’s social fabric.

One Nation, One Election: A Potential Shift in Election Synchronization

In line with the "One Nation, One Election" proposal, the government envisions simultaneous elections for the Lok Sabha and all state assemblies by 2029. The successful execution of the 2025 census would facilitate this process by providing updated constituency boundaries. However, this synchronization could bring challenges, as constituencies across India vary significantly in population size, a disparity particularly visible between northern and southern states.

North vs. South Debate: Addressing Regional Representation

As per the current understanding of the 2002 Delimitation Act, northern states with higher population growth are likely to gain more representation, whereas southern states, which have succeeded in controlling population growth, may see diminished parliamentary representation. This discrepancy raises concerns about fair representation across regions. Reports suggest that the government may adopt a proportional representation system to balance representation fairly, acknowledging the significant progress southern states have made in managing population growth.

Women’s Reservation in the Lok Sabha

The Women’s Reservation Bill, passed in the last session, mandates that one-third of Lok Sabha seats will be reserved for women. The upcoming census will provide the foundational data for seat reservation adjustments, supporting gender representation in governance. This shift aligns with India's push for inclusivity and equality.

Regional Tensions: North vs. South

Southern states, including Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Karnataka, have raised concerns about potential disadvantages in seat allocation due to their lower population growth. In response, the central government is considering proportional representation mechanisms to ensure fair representation, addressing the demographic and political discrepancies across regions.

Timeline and Impact on the 2029 Elections

With Census completion aimed by 2026, delimitation based on updated data could happen just in time for the 2029 elections. This would allow a more balanced representation aligned with current population figures, possibly resulting in an increase from the current 543 Lok Sabha seats, which has remained unchanged since 1976.

Conclusion

India’s Census 2025 is poised to shape the country’s political landscape profoundly, impacting Lok Sabha representation, addressing regional disparities, and possibly increasing legislative seats. This data-driven reshaping will balance the scales between northern and southern states while introducing greater female representation, setting the stage for a pivotal change in the 2029 elections. As India prepares for the Census, the emphasis will be on equitable representation across diverse states.