India's national carrier, Air India, has projected a staggering $600 million loss if Pakistan continues to restrict its airspace to Indian airlines for an entire year. The estimation, revealed by news agency PTI via airline sources, has pushed the aviation industry into high alert and prompted urgent consultations with the Ministry of Civil Aviation.
The closure came in the wake of India’s diplomatic retaliation following the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack, which left 26 people dead. In response, India directed all Pakistani nationals on certain visas to leave the country, prompting Pakistan to close its skies to Indian carriers starting April 24.
Increased Costs and Operational Hurdles
According to officials familiar with the matter, Air India’s international operations have taken a direct hit due to longer flight paths, increased fuel consumption, and longer flight durations. These rerouted operations have led to weekly additional expenses of around ₹77 crore, or over ₹306 crore per month across airlines operating international routes from North India.
While Air India is bearing the brunt, IndiGo, SpiceJet, Akasa Air, and Air India Express have also reported increased operational burdens. These carriers have submitted their impact assessments and suggestions to the Civil Aviation Ministry during a recent high-level review meeting.
A senior airline executive stated, “With no overflight access via Pakistan, routes to Europe, West Asia, and North America must be significantly adjusted, causing substantial delays and escalating fuel costs.”
Government Response and Alternative Solutions
Civil Aviation Minister K Rammohan Naidu confirmed that the ministry is evaluating multiple alternative strategies, including route optimization and possible bilateral airspace agreements with other nations to reduce the burden.
Naidu told reporters, “We are aware of the heavy financial impact. The government is working closely with Indian carriers to mitigate disruptions. Passenger interest and airline sustainability are our priorities.”
Air India has also reportedly sought financial assistance from the government to cushion the impact of the closure, although no official statement from the airline has been released so far.
Passenger Implications: Rising Airfares
As operational costs soar, passenger fares are expected to rise, especially on long-haul routes between India and destinations in Europe and North America. Industry experts warn of fare increases of up to 20-25% on affected sectors if the current airspace blockade extends beyond May.
Aviation analyst Meera D’Souza said, “This crisis will ultimately affect passengers, both in terms of pricing and availability. The closure has forced carriers to cut back on flight frequencies due to slot constraints and longer rotations.”
India Retaliates With Reciprocal Ban
In a tit-for-tat move, India has also suspended Pakistani aircraft from using Indian airspace until at least May 23. This move is seen as a diplomatic and economic counter to Islamabad's stance, tightening the standoff between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.
Pakistan has not issued an official explanation for its citizens stranded at the Attari-Wagah border or the prolonged airspace closure, raising international concerns over humanitarian and diplomatic breakdowns.
Conclusion
With diplomatic tensions escalating and both countries engaging in reciprocal airspace bans, the aviation sector stands at the frontline of the fallout. Unless both governments move toward de-escalation, Indian airlines — led by Air India — face mounting losses that could have ripple effects across the industry and passengers alike.
The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether dialogue can prevail over disruption, or if the skies between India and Pakistan will remain closed indefinitely.