In a stunning political development, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party is projected to win the 2025 Canada federal election, according to major national broadcasters including CBC News. While the final seat count is still being tallied, early trends show the Liberals outperforming Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, though it's unclear if Carney's party will form a majority government in the 343-seat House of Commons.
To govern without coalition support, a party must win at least 172 seats. Current projections suggest the Liberal Party of Canada is within reach of that threshold, signaling a fourth consecutive term for the ruling party.
Liberal Party Gains Nationalist Momentum Amid Trump’s Interference
The 2025 Canada election was heavily influenced by US President Donald Trump, whose aggressive rhetoric toward Canada — including threats to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian automobiles and a proposal to annex Canada as the 51st U.S. state — triggered a surge of nationalist sentiment among voters.
Trump’s provocative remarks, shared across social media and campaign speeches, unexpectedly boosted support for Mark Carney, a former central banker and political newcomer. His leadership offered a sharp contrast to Trump's unpredictability, which resonated with Canadian voters eager to assert independence and stability.
From Trudeau to Carney: A Leadership Transition That Worked
Following a dip in popularity due to economic stress, inflation, and immigration concerns, former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stepped down, paving the way for Mark Carney to take the reins of the Liberal Party. The transition re-energized the party’s base and offered a new face for a government facing heavy criticism.
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre attempted to position the election as a referendum on Trudeau-era policies, focusing on housing affordability, inflation, and immigration pressures. Despite these issues dominating headlines, the Trump factor shifted the conversation toward national sovereignty and economic defense, helping the Liberals recover lost ground.
Record Voter Turnout Reflects High-Stakes Atmosphere
Elections Canada reported that over 7.3 million Canadians cast their votes in advance polling — a historic number that indicated widespread public engagement. With 28.9 million eligible voters, the final turnout is expected to exceed previous records.
Polling stations across the country closed at 10 PM EDT, and early results from urban and suburban ridings suggested stronger-than-expected support for the Liberals.
Canada’s Electoral System Shapes Outcome
Under Canada’s first-past-the-post electoral system, winning the highest number of individual ridings, not the popular vote, determines victory. This often leads to scenarios where a party with less than 50% of the vote can still form a government.
In several tight races, Liberal candidates narrowly edged out their Conservative rivals, particularly in key provinces like Ontario, British Columbia, and Quebec. These wins were crucial in pushing the party closer to the majority mark.
Trump’s Comments Galvanize Canadian Public
Donald Trump's proposal for Canada to become the 51st U.S. state and his vow to use economic force to achieve it outraged many Canadians. The comments were widely condemned by Canadian politicians across the spectrum and reignited discussions about sovereignty, trade independence, and national identity.
“Good luck to the great people of Canada,” Trump posted online. “Elect the man who can cut your taxes in half, increase your military for free, and quadruple your economy with no tariffs — as the 51st state of America.”
While intended to influence Canadian voters, the statement had the opposite effect, leading to a backlash against perceived American interference and enhancing Mark Carney’s standing as a defender of Canadian values and autonomy.
Uncertain Majority, But Clear Mandate
Though it remains uncertain whether the Liberal Party will secure a clear majority, the projected win grants Mark Carney a strong mandate to lead Canada forward. If the party falls short of 172 seats, it may need to collaborate with the New Democratic Party (NDP) or the Bloc Québécois to pass legislation and maintain confidence in Parliament.
Carney, speaking briefly to supporters, thanked Canadians for their trust and reaffirmed his commitment to strengthening the economy, defending national interests, and restoring faith in government.
“This is a victory for hope, stability, and sovereignty,” Carney said. “We are ready to move Canada forward.”
What Comes Next for Canada
With global economic uncertainty, a changing geopolitical landscape, and a neighbor to the south eager to flex its influence, Canada's political direction under Mark Carney will be closely watched.